"They used to have to hold and turn a steering wheel!"
"They used to have to press pedals on the floor that controlled acceleration and speed, gears and braking - with their feet!!"
"They used to operate windscreen wipers when it rained, and turn lights on when it got dark!!!"
"They used to have to open and close the doors and boot!!!!"
"They used to have to watch the road and other road users, and react, (using those pedal thingies and that steering wheel), to everything from traffic lights to hedgehogs!!!!!"
That was an imaginary conversation about "vintage cars" of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, between some people two or three generations away from now, in a wealthy developed country.
It's fascinating what's going on with cars right now. Electric Vehicles (EVs) gather momentum as battery technology develops and delivers longer range; charging time shrinks, life-span grows and costs come down. With the huge investments and advancements by - and growing cooperation of - major players including new boys on the block Tesla and long-established car manufacturers like Toyota, Renault, BMW, VW and Jaguar in recent years the tipping point is upon us. All of that, and Government disincentives to own and drive a car powered by the old faithful Internal Combustion Engine, (ICE), it's only a matter of time. The end is no doubt nigh also for the myriad hybrid models that sort of bridge(d) the gap between the ICE and the EV.
Oh, and behind all of this of course there's the small matter of diminishing oil reserves, with crude oil vanishing at a rate of more than four billion tonnes a year. Continue as we are and known oil deposits could run out in about 50 years, by approximately 2070. That's less than two centuries after the first oil well in the world was drilled in 1859 by Colonel Edwin Drake in Pennsylvania, Cowboyland, U.S.A. This said, it should be remembered that oil production, and so consumption, didn't take off in a really big way until about 50 years later with the beginning with WW I when oil became a strategic energy source and a major geopolitical prize. I should acknowledge the fact that oil was first actually discovered by the Chinese in 600 B.C. and transported in pipelines made from bamboo, but this didn't herald an age of mass consumption.
Anyway. I'm all for EVs, though it'll be a while before old-fashioned fossil fuel is dislodged as the primary source of energy generated to charge the batteries. With greater commitment and incentives from Government the contribution of renewable energy from solar, wind and wave technology will grow, and unlike the ICE the EV opens the door to exploitation of this new and growing energy pool. I for one am looking forward to taking a test drive in an electric car, and plan to do so in a new VW Id when they start filtering into the UK around Springtime in 2020.
So-called "battery range anxiety" will disappear, (if it hasn't already), as distance between charges grows. The aforementioned Id, for example, will come with a choice of three batteries delivering ranges of 200, 260 or 340 miles. The smallest, (and cheapest), will probably meet the needs of most of us, most of the time. Also recharge speeds are getting quicker, with 30 minutes needed to generate about 80% of full capacity. Include installation of a home charger in your EV purchase plans and charge overnight from the comfort of your own premises - more convenient, and cleaner, than using a petrol station. For further confidence, most manufacturers are offering warrantees along the lines of eight years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. A further and related consideration is the cost of a replacement battery, if / when that time eventually comes.
Being the driver of a 20 year old car I am prepared for a number of shocks, though doubtless can't predict them all. One potential banana-skin for me is the prospect of a car that speaks to me, telling me how to drive, when to change gear, when to overtake etc. I'll have to see how things pan out on the test drive/s.
I'm currently less convinced by the driver-less thing. It's probably a lack of imagination on my part, but I see a number of significant challenges, as well as the loss of the pleasure of actually driving, (a rare thing on today's roads, but still achievable from time to time). There'll inevitably be a transition period when roll-out of driver-less cars will see small numbers of them sharing the roads with a majority of non-driver-less cars, which seems to me a recipe for trouble. But then so does a time when most or all cars on the road are driver-less. What happens to the cars running behind another car when it suddenly stops because of a flat tyre for example, or for some other reason such as avoiding a wayward pedestrian or animal? How will any insurance claim/s work? Will the software be held to account? (We've already seen awful and fatal consequences of software shortcomings in the air with the Boeing 737). And what on earth will a driver-less test look like, the passing of which will authorise the ownership and use of a driver-less car? Perhaps it will involve sitting on the back seat, remaining calm and reading a newspaper. What will happen when we've all been driving around in driver-less cars in the U.K. for years and decide to travel abroad to a country less advanced, and to get around requires hiring an old-fashioned car that actually needs to be driven?
These questions will, I expect, all be answered in due course, by which time we may be contemplating the joys of flying cars.
When I find myself puzzling over things like this I reflect on how the Wright Brothers would react to the skies over Heathrow airport today. It's been about 120 years since their Wright Flyer took to the air, and I don't think they'd believe their eyes.
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